Duke’s 2021-22 basketball season was already shaping up as an intriguing storyline earlier than coach Mike Krzyzewski introduced earlier this month that he’ll retire as soon as it is full. For the primary time in additional than a quarter-century, the Blue Devils are coming into a brand new marketing campaign after lacking the NCAA Match, and that alone meant there have been going to be plenty of eyeballs on one of many sport’s storied applications.

However now that Duke’s all-time nice coach is on the way in which out, the Blue Devils can be below a nationwide microscope much more intense than anticipated. So how will they fare within the shiny highlight after a 13-11 season?  The final time Duke missed the NCAA Match was the 1994-95 season, when Krzyzewski missed a lot of the marketing campaign on account of well being points. They returned to the NCAA Match the next yr however have been a No. 8 seed and misplaced by 15 to Jap Michigan within the first spherical.

Can this model of the bounce-back Blue Devils fare higher? With one other highly-touted recruiting class on the way in which in and a few high quality returners together with Wendell Moore, Jeremy Roach and Mark Williams, there’s actually no cause for Duke to overlook the Large Dance once more. For this week’s version of the Dribble Handoff — as we additionally did not too long ago with Kentucky after its down yr — our writers are providing takes on what we should always anticipate from the Blue Devils throughout Coach Ok’s farewell season.

Gary Parrish

30 wins | 1st in ACC | Elite Eight of NCAA Match

Duke enrolled 4 five-star prospects upfront of final season, which urged, on a floor degree, that the Blue Devils have been LOADED. However one of many factors I made again and again, after Duke began struggling, was that not one of the freshmen have been consensus top-10 recruits and/or assured lottery picks; level being that each one five-star prospects will not be the identical.

Zion Williamson was a five-star prospect.

So was Mark Williams.

They don’t seem to be the identical.

To be clear, there are various causes Duke struggled final season — the obvious being that they have been closely reliant on first-year gamers in the course of a world pandemic that robbed all newcomers of vital offseason exercises and simple non-league video games that assist create chemistry and improve improvement. However the lack of high-end expertise was additionally undoubtedly among the many causes. And when Jalen Johnson give up the crew midseason, Duke was left and not using a single freshman who was ranked within the prime 20 of his highschool class.

That will not be an issue this season.

Duke is simply enrolling three five-star prospects this yr, however all three — Paolo Banchero, AJ Griffin, Trevor Keels — are top-20 recruits, two of them  — Banchero, Griffin — are projected top-10 picks for the 2022 NBA Draft and one of the best of the bunch — Banchero — is prone to be the No. 1 total choice. Consequently, this Duke crew, from a expertise perspective, will look quite a bit like a number of the greatest Duke groups from current years, and that is why I am a agency believer that Mike Krzyzewski’s closing season can be an excellent one. Will it lead to Coach Ok’s sixth nationwide championship? Maybe not. However I personally would not rule out something with an offense constructed round Banchero, and the truth that I’ve the Blue Devils ranked eighth within the High 25 And 1 means I consider Duke must be thought of the favourite to a minimum of win what can be Kryzewski’s thirteenth ACC common season title.

Matt Norlander

30 wins | 2nd in ACC | Candy 16

A be aware on our win-total prediction: we’re forecasting this out for the whole thing of the season, that means that is what number of dubs we anticipated the Devils to complete with as soon as they’ve performed their closing NCAA Match recreation. If you are going to forecast wins, schedule issues. Let us take a look at the non-con because it stands now. What we all know: vs. Kentucky on the opening evening within the Champions Traditional; vs. Gonzaga in Las Vegas on Nov. 26; vs. a to-be-determined (and high-quality) Large Ten crew on the highway in early December. Duke can be internet hosting a four-team MTE that features Military (this can be a good contact in Ok’s sendoff season), Hartford and Campbell. There’s additionally a homer towards The Citadel combined in there. I will cut up the distinction and say Duke has two losses in non-league play earlier than attending to its 20-game ACC schedule, which additionally contains roadies towards UNC, Florida State and Virginia, for starters. 

Duke hasn’t received a standalone ACC common season title since 2006, so I will choose the Blue Devils to complete second. All advised, I feel 25 or 26 wins within the common season + ACC tourney is objectively cheap, if not a bit optimistic. (Contemplate what my colleagues are detailing with the roster scenario, too, as it is going to be an attention-grabbing group.) 

Now, there’s a distinctive element to this season: all of the pomp and hoopla hooked up to Ok’s closing yr as head coach. We do not understand how a lot of all of that’s going to have an effect on the crew’s efficiency. If it does, will it’s good? By the point the postseason arrives, overlaying Ok can be a cottage trade all by itself. We can’t know which recreation can be Ok’s final … until Duke makes the title recreation. I will wager towards that, however I do suppose this crew can have sufficient to be a No. 2 seed, make the Candy 16 and lose an excellent one towards a top-10 crew. My prediction: Coach Ok’s closing recreation occurs in the identical metropolis the place one in all his biggest wins came about: Philadelphia. In 1992, Duke beat Kentucky within the Elite Eight, a recreation universally acknowledged as one of many three biggest in faculty basketball historical past. Philly’s one of many 4 regional websites for subsequent yr, and 30 wins will get Ok to precisely 1,200 for his profession.

Kyle Boone

33 wins | 1st in ACC | NCAA Match champions

Duke enrolled a top-five recruiting class final yr comprised of 4 five-star prospects that inflated preseason expectations, just for the Blue Devils to go 13-11. So I perceive if you happen to’re hesitant to purchase again into the Duke buzz. However this recruiting class — with three five-star, top-20 prospects — is a unique bunch. 

Paolo Banchero is a real No. 1 total choose contender. AJ Griffin and Trevor Keels are seemingly future first-rounders. After which Duke additionally brings again one other NBA expertise in Mark Williams. These abilities, mixed with the addition of switch Theo John and returning items like Jeremy Roach and Wendell Moore, ought to launch the Blue Devils again to the highest of the ACC and their expertise pool on the entire might be adequate to ship Coach Ok out on prime.

David Cobb

24 wins | fifth in ACC | Second spherical in NCAA Match

The expertise is there for Duke to bounce again with a classic degree of success in Krzyzewski’s closing season, however there are a few causes for unease about this squad’s championship potential. As constructed now, the roster would seemingly produce a nine-man rotation together with 4 freshmen and two sophomores. Although senior Joey Baker and Marquette graduate switch Theo John will carry some age to the combo, each determine to be reserves, which leaves this crew trending too arduous in a youthful route.

Secondly, you’ll be able to anticipate a dip in Duke’s 35.2% 3-point taking pictures mark from final season. That respectable mark ranked 112th nationally however ought to fall with main scorer and prime outdoors shooter Matthew Harm (44.4% from 3 on 5.3 makes an attempt per recreation) departing for the NBA Draft. The perimeter taking pictures should come from someplace else. Roach (31.3% on 3.5 makes an attempt per recreation) and Baker (31.4% on 2.2 makes an attempt) are the crew’s prime returning shooters. The dearth of confirmed outdoors choices will put some strain on five-star taking pictures guard prospect Trevor Keels to be a direct 3-point taking pictures menace.

For those who’re in search of optimism, look to the defensive aspect. Duke ranked 79th nationally final season in defensive effectivity, in line with KenPom. Duke generally is a vastly improved defensive crew this season. Protection is essentially about effort and buy-in, and it is not troublesome to see this crew being a squad that lays it on the market each recreation because of the circumstances of this season. Finally, although, the constraints of this crew’s youth and outdoors taking pictures will maintain Duke from sending Krzyzewski out with one other ACC or nationwide title.